TS-almost-Hurricane Isaac: Where it goes nobody knows

Yes, I am still here. I am still keeping an eye on Tropical Storm-Almost-Hurricane Isaac.

Look on TV and you will see that everyone and their special porpoise says the storm will hit New Orleans. Well, of course it will hit New Orleans. I’ve said it many times before and with good reason: The media want to go to New Orleans. Not Cameron, La., or Orange, Texas, or Hardtime, Miss.

The truth is no one knows where the hurricane will hit. Oh, they — various agencies and colleges and the National Hurricane Center — all have an idea. Between them all they say the storm will hit somewhere between here in Jefferson County, Texas, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  Maybe not exactly. Maybe the forecasters have it down to a 250-mile radius of New Orleans. All three hurricanes I have experienced — well to be honest I slept through Cat 1 Hurricane Humberto and it sneaked up on just about everyone — during the past seven years here in deepest, darkest Southeast Texas were all predicted to land elsewhere. Sometimes, a couple of times and a couple of places elsewhere.

It was only the day before Hurricanes Rita and Ike that I decided what I would do. Rita — leave. Ike — stay. Both times I woke up about 6 o’clock in the morning to the news of “Guess what? There’s a mandatory evacuation.”  I kind of make calculated guesses about whether I should go or stay based on factors like, the speed and direction of the wind, storm surge, rain, what kind of shelter I have and do I have any reason to stay. As to the last question, the answer was yes, because I would be paid to write about the storm. But I questioned my shelter during Rita and as it turned out, the storm was as fierce where I “evacuated” to my brother’s home 60 miles away as it was at my apartment in Beaumont.

I am no hurricane expert by any means. My guessing as to evacuating might be dangerous, but I think I err on the side of caution, relatively speaking. If you know my life in total like some of my friends, then you would know why I put the “relatively speaking” proviso.

If I were to guess, I’d have to say the storm center of Isaac will land as a Cat 1.5 somewhere between Venice “The End of the World” Louisiana, and Lafayette, La. Why do I say that? Is that because of my adroit knowledge of hurricane modelling and tracking? No, I am operating on what is known in science and other sectors of society as a WAG, for “wild ass guess.”

Wherever it lands, I hope it doesn’t cause a whole lot of damage and that no one is harmed from this act of nature gone wild.

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