Groundhog day predictions: Get real!

Happy Ground­hog Day.

Seri­ously, some peo­ple actu­ally cel­e­brate the day the towns­folk of Punx­sutawney, Pa., drag the cud­dly lit­tle rodent Punx­sutawney Phil out of his hole to pre­dict the fate of win­ter. It is six more weeks if Phil sees its shadow or win­ter will come to an end in six weeks if no shadow falls from the lit­tle groundhog.

Phil saw its shadow today or so say his han­dlers. We can go on the sup­po­si­tion that ground­hogs rec­og­nize shad­ows, in their own lit­tle ground­hog way. Whether or not they can pre­dict weather is a mat­ter of belief, such as Santa Claus. Of course, any­one with any sense knows damn well that Santa is real.

There are tons of Punx­sutawney Phil knock­offs these days: Gen. Beau­re­gard Lee of Atlanta, Buck­eye Chuck of Ohio, Jimmy the Ground­hog of Wis­con­sin and so forth. Whether these weather pre­dic­tion experts see their shadow and fore­tell win­ter mat­ters more on geog­ra­phy and mete­o­rol­ogy than true superstition.

We don’t have a ground­hog to fore­cast weather here in Beau­mont, on the upper Texas coast near Louisiana. Hell, I don’t even know if we have ground­hogs in Texas. I will check and get back with you on that, but don’t hold your breath, please. I sup­pose we would have to come up with a nutria with a Cajun name, such as Boudreaux Bill or some­thing of that ilk if we were to have a Phil imper­son­ator. Since we aver­age nearly 60 inches of pre­cip­i­ta­tion a year, it would be a good bet that Boudreaux wouldn’t see his shadow. It depends, of course, on the time of day and the time of year.

I think a lot of TV sta­tions miss out on a bet by not hav­ing their weath­er­man come out of a hole on Ground­hog Day. A hole is where some of them cer­tainly belong. I won’t men­tion any names.

Per­son­ally, when I see my shadow on ground­hog day it means the sun is shin­ing or the cops have hit me with a spot­light. My pre­dic­tion: six more weeks of win­ter. A late snow in Feb­ru­ary. Then, smooth sail­ing about mid-March. That’s just a guess. But it works for me.