As TS Dolly churns over the Southern Gulf of Mexico many of those of us who live on the Gulf coast keep a watchful eye on the storm to see if we need to start buying massive amounts of supplies at the last minute.
Each year I say I am going to assemble a hurricane kit and since going through two hurricanes in the last three years I still haven’t put such a kit together. I know I should possess at least some basic supplies, and I do. I have knives, tools, canned goods, a digital camera, somewhat operable laptop and power converters so I can operate these and other electronic products from my truck if necessary. Oh and flashlights. My late friend Waldo Miller, who thought you couldn’t have enough flashlights or that those lights could never be too enormous, would roll over in his grave if I didn’t have at least one Maglite around. Fortunately, I do.
The problem with hurricanes is that, although areas get plenty of early warning a storm is out and about, one doesn’t always have the certainty of if and when that storm will actually hit where the forecasters say it will hit.
Right now the National Hurricane Center puts the center of Dolly’s “3-Day Cone” of Guesstimation somewhere around Brownsville, Texas.
But when you start reading the language of the forecasters in their storm discussions, you see where they never seem to say things like: “It’s going to hit the Piggly Wiggly on Fourth and Main in Downtown La Feria, Texas, By God!” For instance, they say of Dolly today:
DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY…300/16…TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL S FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS…RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF … THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE S ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK…SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.
That’s right. Don’t EVEN focus on the exact location of landfall because it probably won’t fall where they say it will right now. Rita was first forecast for near this current area in which the storm supposedly will hit. Then they predicted around Corpus Christi, then Surfside, followed by Galveston. It actually made landfall between Cameron, La. and Sabine Pass, Texas. Granted Rita was on a much different track from Dolly, but the fact remains I woke up early that Thursday morning to the word of a mandatory evacuation from Jefferson County and left about 8 that night, a bit more than 24 hours before we got pounded with about the same intensity at the place where I evacuated to as from where I escaped.
So, just go with the flow. Don’t get too complacent until it’s way on shore and headed in the opposite direction from you. Oh, and good luck with having enough money for gas to get you out of town. This public service message was brought to you by your local chapter of the Pessimist Club, our motto being: “I would’ve gone to the meetings but I was afraid no one else would show up!”